Unconditional Surrender
Yesterday, on a 60 Minutes extended interview, Pete Hegseth told the country the United States is on track and on plan.
The flags were behind him. The lights were on. Someone had pressed his suit.
Meanwhile, Saturday night in Tehran looked like hell.
Israel struck thirty fuel depots. Huge fireballs. Walls of flame visible for miles. Tehran has gutters that run along almost every street and alley — open channels, part of the city’s architecture, ordinary as sidewalks. Saturday night they ran with fire. A city of nine million people watched their streets become rivers of burning oil.
In Tulsa this morning a man put his card in the pump and paid $3.478. The State of the Union was eleven days ago. He noticed it. He moved on.
A woman in Tehran woke her children before dawn and told them not to open the windows. Black droplets on the glass. The sun could not be seen. She could taste it. Iran’s Red Crescent warned the rainfall was highly dangerous and acidic — capable of chemical burns to the skin and severe damage to the lungs. She told her children to stay away from the glass. She did not know what else to say.
The same oil burning over Tehran is why the price changed at that pump. The crises of 1973 and 1979 each took six to seven percent of global supply offline and sent prices up 400 percent. What is locked in the Gulf right now is three times that. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Oil infrastructure has no on/off switch — destroyed capacity takes years to rebuild. Storage across the Gulf is filling. Countries are already cutting production because tankers cannot move. Deutsche Bank is projecting $200 a barrel if the Strait stays dark. That is not a ceiling. That is a projection based on what is already happening.
She is still at the window. He is already gone.
Three days ago Trump posted two words on Truth Social: UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER.
Iran’s president answered the same day. Anyone dreaming of unconditional surrender should take that dream to their grave.
Garrett asked what unconditional surrender looks like.
Hegseth said: we’ll know when they’re not capable of fighting. Whether they want to admit it or not, whether their pride lets them say it out loud or not — it’s President Trump who will set the terms of that.
Iran’s president had already answered.
Take that dream to your grave.
Garrett asked about the Iran-Iraq war. Eight years. No surrender. Does that factor in?
Hegseth called it silly and academic.
He said this from a studio. Flags pressed and lit. The terms set from a room where the air is clean.
The Ledger
On one side of the ledger:
Gas was $2.975 at the State of the Union. It is $3.478 now. A tank of gas in Tulsa. A tank of gas in Phoenix. A tank of gas in every driveway in the country, every morning, quietly more expensive than the morning before.
The war costs $1 billion a day. The roads. The schools. The prescriptions. The childcare. The bridges. The clinics. The teachers buying their own supplies. The water pipes. The emergency rooms. The veterans on waiting lists. One billion dollars a day.
The black rain is still falling on Tehran.
On the other side:
A girls’ school in Minab, southeastern Iran. Hit in the opening wave on February 28th. A hundred and eighty children dead. The United States said it would investigate whether its forces were responsible. Israel denied involvement. The school is rubble either way.
Three thousand targets struck. Thirteen hundred Iranians dead. Seven Americans dead. Fifty thousand American troops in the region.
The black rain still falling.
Fifty cents. A hundred and eighty children. The investigation is ongoing.
What History Says
Garrett asked about the Iran-Iraq war. Eight years. Neither side surrendered. Does that factor into your calculus?
Hegseth said those were foolish approaches. Said this is different.
In the winter of 1940, the German Luftwaffe bombed London for 57 consecutive nights. The Blitz killed more than forty thousand British civilians. Entire neighborhoods leveled. St. Paul’s Cathedral standing in smoke. The population did not break. It hardened. Churchill did not surrender. The people did not surrender.
The Americans learned the same lesson from the other side. The United States dropped more bombs on Vietnam than were dropped by all sides in all of World War II combined. Vietnam did not surrender. It outlasted the clock.
Bombing produces the opposite. It produces the population that rallies, that buries its dead, that decides the foreigners in the sky are the enemy and the government beneath them is the nation.
The US message to Israel after the fuel depot strikes, according to Axios, was: WTF. The concern was that striking civilian infrastructure would consolidate Iranian society behind the regime.
Iran’s new supreme leader was elected yesterday. Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the man killed on day one. Close ties to the Revolutionary Guard. Hard-line. The Israeli military said it would target anyone participating in the selection process. They held the vote anyway.
The population breathing black rain does not surrender.
The Terms
Garrett asked about boots on the ground.
Hegseth said: we’re willing to go as far as we need to in order to be successful.
He did not say how far that is. Did not say what success looks like. What he said was: we’re willing to go as far as we need to. Which is the oldest sentence in the American military vocabulary. It was said in Vietnam. It was said in Iraq. It has never once been followed by an accounting of what as far as we need to actually cost, in the places where the going happened, among the people the going was done to. The man who says it is never the one who finds out.
One quarter of Americans support this war. The man who will set the terms posted UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER on Truth Social. Karoline Leavitt said surrender happens when Trump decides it has, whether Iran says so or not.
One room has flags and pressed suits and studio lights. The other has black glass and children being told to stay back from the windows.
Trump will set the terms.
The same oil burning over Tehran is why a hand went to a pump in Tulsa this morning. $3.478. Fifty cents more than the State of the Union.
Deutsche Bank projects $200 a barrel if the Strait stays dark. That is not a ceiling. That is a projection based on what is already happening.
A woman is still at her window in Tehran. Her children are behind her. The glass is black. The sun has not come up.
She is not asking about the terms. She is watching the glass to see when the black thins enough to tell her children they can open the windows.
Notes & Sources
The Interview
CBS News. (2026, March 8). Pete Hegseth: The 60 Minutes Interview. CBS News. https://www.cbsnews.com/video/pete-hegseth-iran-war-60-minutes-video-2026-03-08/
CBS News. (2026, March 8). On U.S. strikes against Iran, Pete Hegseth says, “this is only just the beginning.” CBS News. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hegseth-us-strikes-iran-trump-plans-60-minutes-transcript/
CBS News. (2026, March 6). Hegseth on reports Russia aided Iran: “Anything that shouldn’t be happening” will be “confronted strongly.” CBS News. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hegseth-us-iran-russia/
Unconditional Surrender / Karoline Leavitt
Axios. (2026, March 6). Trump to Axios: “Unconditional surrender” is when Iran “can’t fight any longer.” Axios. https://www.axios.com/2026/03/06/trump-iran-war-unconditional-surrender
Al Jazeera. (2026, March 6). ‘No deal with Iran except unconditional surrender,’ Trump says. Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/6/no-deal-with-iran-except-unconditional-surrender-trump-says
The Minab School Strike
CNN. (2026, March 6). Iran school strike: Analysis suggests US was responsible for deadly strike. CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/06/middleeast/iran-minab-elementary-school-investigation-us-strike-intl
Human Rights Watch. (2026, March 7). US/Israel: Investigate Iran school attack as a war crime. Human Rights Watch. https://www.hrw.org/news/2026/03/07/us/israel-investigate-iran-school-attack-as-a-war-crime
NBC News. (2026, March 4). What we know about the strike on a school in Iran as the death toll rises. NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/know-strike-school-iran-death-toll-rises-rcna261266
The Black Rain / Fuel Depot Strikes
Time. (2026, March 8). Tehran shrouded in toxic smoke after Israel strikes fuel depots. Time. https://time.com/7383099/iran-news-oil-strikes-tehran/
Times of Israel. (2026, March 8). Black clouds over Tehran rain down oil drops after Israel strikes oil facilities. Times of Israel. https://www.timesofisrael.com/black-clouds-over-tehran-rain-down-oil-drops-after-israel-strikes-oil-facilities/
New Arab. (2026, March 8). Toxic smoke, rain over Tehran after Israel strikes oil depots. New Arab. https://www.newarab.com/news/toxic-smoke-rain-over-tehran-after-israel-strikes-oil-depots
New Supreme Leader
Al Jazeera. (2026, March 8). Iran names Mojtaba Khamenei as its new supreme leader after father’s killing. Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/8/iran-names-khameneis-son-as-new-supreme-leader-after-fathers-killing-2
CBS News. (2026, March 9). Iran names new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, Iranian state media reports. CBS News. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mojtaba-khamenei-iran-new-supreme-leader/
Gas Prices / Oil Markets
PBS News. (2026, March 4). Experts analyze what the Iran war could mean for U.S. gasoline prices. PBS NewsHour. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/experts-analyze-what-the-iran-war-could-mean-for-u-s-gasoline-prices
Time. (2026, March 8). Gas prices surge in U.S. as Iran war chokes global oil supply. Time. https://time.com/7383060/gas-prices-iran-war-oil/
CNBC. (2026, March 2). How high can oil and gas prices go because of the Iran war? Here are the scenarios. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/02/iran-oil-gas-prices-strait-hormuz.html
AAA. (2026, March 9). National average gas price.
https://gasprices.aaa.com/
KLAS. (2026, February 25). Trump State of the Union gas price claim: What it means for car buyers in 2026. https://www.8newsnow.com/automotive/trump-state-of-the-union-gas-price-claim-what-it-means-for-car-buyers-in-2026/
Strait of Hormuz
CBS News. (2026, March 9). Strait of Hormuz ship traffic slows to a crawl. CBS News. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/strait-of-hormuz-iran-oil-prices-us/
NPR. (2026, March 4). Watch: How traffic dried up in the Strait of Hormuz since the Iran war began. NPR. https://www.npr.org/2026/03/04/nx-s1-5736104/iran-war-oil-trump-israel-strait-hormuz-closed-energy-crisis
Public Opinion
Al Jazeera. (2026, March 2). Poll suggests only a quarter of Americans support attacks on Iran. Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/2/poll-suggests-only-a-quarter-of-americans-support-attacks-on-iran
Historical Record: The Blitz
United States Holocaust Memorial Museum. (n.d.). The Blitz begins. Holocaust Encyclopedia. https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/timeline-event/holocaust/1939-1941/the-blitz-begins
London Museum. (n.d.). London’s Blitz: A city at war. London Museum. https://www.londonmuseum.org.uk/collections/london-stories/londons-blitz-a-city-at-war/
Historical Record: Vietnam Bombing
RENEW. (n.d.). The most bombed place on earth. RENEW. https://renewvn.org/the-most-bombed-place-on-earth/
Miguel, E., & Roland, G. (2010). The long-run impact of bombing Vietnam. Journal of Development Economics. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304387810000817
Trump will declare victory before week three to salvage the world economy.
Expect a 911-style false flag “attack” in the US to rally support for the war and the President.
“Loose cannon” doesn’t begin to describe this madman.
5 bucks a gallon in the PNW.